I've always believed Airlines should have defined pathways for young Pilots similar to the military. Not a Cadetship as we see in Europe, but a path from Zero hours to MEIR Instructing, to T-Props (FO then Captn) and finally to Mainline.
That is exactly the point of the post. It will be a supply side issue that drives the change, but it will change.
A pathway for pilots restores respect for the role they play in an airline, gives the airline some supply chain advantages and undoes decades of abuse by airline management with an focus on labour unit cost at the expense of all else.
http://www.pc.gov.au/research/completed/ageing-australia/ageing-australia.pdf
Given the wave of retirements Australia's taxation system faces, 'entitlements' are under pressure, the economy lacks sufficient eco boom workers to replace the retired. Treasury, the ATO and the Productivity Commission all draw the same conclusions: Demographics are destiny. Every western economy faces a similar predicament and aviation, although subject to state limitation is not excluded.Airlines still in state control from Singapore to the Middle Eastern Three will find the regulators working with the government to source supply. No country is immune though, supply is global.
Generally, whilst the demographic issue was not evident as those majority of workers were nowhere near retirement, airline IR used the business cycle to drive down terms and conditions, holding out until the cycle has peaked before concluding a deal. The business cycle has about a 5 to 7 year reversal.
There is substantial literature outlining airline IR practice.
Airline IR practitioners HOLD out for a cycle correction then drive through the agreement. At Qantas that was evidenced with a long drawn out SH agreement taking years to settle, versus a hastily agreed to LH 787 deal. Does anyone stop to wonder why? (I may have my opinion on the appropriateness of the deal, but my point is the time taken to conclude the agreement) Other airlines do exactly the same thing, they all go to the same IATA conferences.
Demographics overwhelm the business cycle, they are a long term bet but they will drive forced change. It won't happen with little Alan and Dorothy the Dinosaur (Clifford) but Oldmeadow ought be taken out back