Originally Posted by
Tricia Takanawa
At the road show they gave an indication of 4.5 years to upgrade. What is the reality here? This seemed rather optimistic.
Thanks in advance!
Let's do the numbers game.
Guys starting their command training this month joined in Dec 2011 so that's about 5 years and 4 month at the moment. They joined the 777 when the number of aircrafts was below 100 and now close to 130 so they've seen an expansion of about 30% and yet had to wait close to 5,5 years.
Without any further real expansion you're looking at attrition alone.
Going back one year from now 98 B777 skippers resigned.
There are some 1370 FOs on the Boeing at the moment..
.. and they're hiring direct entry captains.
I'll let you do the math
Throughout both fleet the attrition rate is about 5,5% at the moment.
As a side note, of all the positions the highest rate in attrition is among the new joining 777 FOs with 11% resigning within their first year.