SAR S-92 Missing Ireland

[Loquatious]

What the crew’s plan was will become apparent soon enough and hopefully the missing will soon be returned.

Without altitude information it is not possible to conclude whether this was an approach to Blackrock or not.

A change of plan due to developing a tail rotor control issue after the turn inbound to Blackrock is unlikely. The procedures for this would suggest that it be better taken to a runway.

All in the 92 world would have been aware of the recent issues regarding the tail rotor. Low pitch or high pitch situations would be a challenge at 80 knots, low altitude, partial IMC at night but any tail control anomalies once encountered would likely not be misidentified as recently happened.

I lack SAR insight but I would expect such letdowns to start from the overhead. The profile flown inbound Blackrock is more like an ARA, albeit with something like a go around followed by an arcing turn. A SAR mode/procedure or simply gradual commanded heading change? I would go with this profile for an approach to Blackrock low level but am unable to see why is would be the profile of choice if they thought as the radio call implies they were at Blacksod. There is certainly scope for a mix up given the similarity of name and basic elements .i.e Lighthouse and landing site.

If deprived of EGPWS active warnings due to approach speed, a crew finding terrain in very close proximity would have been poorly placed to go around as from the photos, Blackrock presents a crescent shape to the west.

If the tail came into significant contact with part of the terrain during avoiding action, the fuselage would have made heavy contact with the rock strewn surface of the sea. Such hard contact could be borne out by the recovery of a fuel tank sponson which are designed to detach at high G loading commensurate wth impact.

As we know, aviation is unforgiving and can be very cruel but a tail rotor problem and a navigation error would, for me, be a scenario too far.