I don't really agree with the downdraft theory. The island is only 400 metres long at its longest part and only max 82 metres high, so minimal scope for a downdraft. That final AIS fix, showing it on the westerly point of the island at 9 knots (but we don't know at what altitude), and where the search is happening 60 metres to the east of the island (so both points about 500 metres apart), with reports of debris on the island, don't suggest a downdraft issue. At that speed and with the distance between the two points so far it just doesn't add up for me. And it doesn't explain why they said they were on their final approach to BlackSOD, 10 NM to the east.