So it seems feasible, if the information we have so far is all correct, that they may have clipped Black Rock during the letdown (debris on the rock that could not have been washed up) and then tried to keep control of the damaged aircraft and elect (or had no choice) to make a water landing.
This landing was clearly a hard one but survivable (at least for a short while) for one of them since you don't get thrown out of the cockpit of an S92 if you are properly strapped in.
The whys and wherefores of the choice of letdown position will only come from the accident investigation but, like so many accidents, it probably won't have one cause but many contributory factors where all the holes in the swiss cheese have lined up.
Lets hope the wreckage and the remaining crew-members can be recovered soon, for the sakes of all involved.
Is there any scenario where she wasn't in the cockpit ? Are there evac hatches in the windows ? Why didn't any of the epirbs trigger ?
The problem, with the debris on the rock, is it depends on where it's found & how heavy it is. Light debris could easily be blown on to the rock or washed up. Any heavy debris, above the strandline, must of either fallen there as part of a mechanical failure or as a result of a collision.
But to me the big question is why were they anywhere near the only obstacle ? From memory Blacksod would be a gentle, flat approach from the sea with no obstacles. I also wonder why you would fly so far out before turning in to approach ?
I watch these helicopters a lot - I live by the sea. I have seen them come over Black Head (around 300 metres) & descend into the bay. I have even seen them descend from the hover. So why go 10 miles out to sea ?