With regard to BA and MAN, whilst I don't think we'll see a full base at MAN there are plenty of reasons why it could see BA growth:
- BA's approach to competition. BA's approach to the growth of LCCs was "cut and run". It is now paying for this having indirectly assisted on more than one occasion easyJet becoming the dominant carrier at LGW. It is quite clear IAG does not want to repeat this with Norwegian.
- BA Holidays. This has one of the quiet success stories for BA over the past few years. BA being able to offer hotel packages on ba.com without taking on inventory risk has been a game changer and has resulted in significant long-haul growth at LGW.
- Summer leisure short-haul. Again, a huge area of growth. BA had next to no coverage of Ibiza a few years ago. Now it will operate around 40 flights from the UK to Ibiza in the summer peak. LHR has seen a number of summer leisure flights too long to list (Nantes, Montpellier, Biarritz, Kalamata, Chania, Kos, Santorini, Mykonos, Zante, Pula, Faro, Malaga, Palma, Murcia, Brindisi...)
- Avios. This now has coverage across BA, Aer Lingus, Iberia, Flybe and others. It gives BA a huge amount of data on flying habits from its user base across the UK and members in UK regions now have a lot more options for earnings and redemptions.
- Mixed short-haul / long-haul flying. LGW & MF crews operating both short-haul and long-haul does give more scheduling flexibility that wouldn't have been possible on the EF/WW fleets.
- IAG/BA approach to return on capital. A number of measures in recent times to extract more from existing assets. The 777s are to be "densified" and have their life extended to 30 years.