A320.b744,
Another great update on a very noteworthy topic!
All of the points you make some sense and you touch on what are the most tried and tested routes and those that would be high on the list of potential markets!
However, a couple of things about NI market. It tends to be seasonal to the extreme and while very attractive in June July and August the other months are less attractive. Most people want to travel across the peak July holidays, the 'July Fortnight'. This poses a problem in terms of capacity. Virgin serving during that peak time is testament to this seasonal factor at work.
Prague is a great destination and has also been served briefly by bmibaby...
Toronto - Air Canada Rouge is a step too far, this is a Westjet 737 market for sure and my sense would be that this the most attractive destination on the list, it has to be a low cost airline and a realistic size of aircraft.
Describing routes as 'viable' - take a BCN, it needs to be flown at peak times potentially at the cost of serving a strong route where the potential returns are better. Outside of attractive timings, the need to deliver low fares, on top of all the taxes etc. etc. the airline may on such flights only be getting a few £/€ per seat, couple that with low loads, and lets remember airlines have targets for load factor, in a low cost world it is usually north of 90%!!!
Airlines do have systems that allow them to get a view of where passengers are going, i.e. how many passengers boarded aircraft in Belfast City with BA / KL and were going to Vancouver etc. but NI's challenge is its proximity to Dublin and the volume of passengers who choose to fly from there. As a result of this, it is about finding an airline who is willing to take a risk on Belfast.....
EI-BUD