An analysis of possible new routes/increased frequencies
I was looking at CAA statistics for BFS passenger numbers between 2006-2010, and it was very interesting to see that there are several routes that had the demand but had their services reduced or dropped altogether. Undoubtedly the financial crisis led to the reduction in services, but while most services have seen increased frequencies or new operators over the last few years, some routes have been left behind. Below are a few routes that I think could be restarted in the near future, or could have more frequencies, based on previous passenger numbers. Of course, I doubt that all of these will materialise, and previous passenger numbers aren’t the most reliable for predicting market demand, but it shows that there are opportunities out there for a more diverse range of destinations from BFS.
Prague has been added and dropped several times over the last 10 years, most recently by Jet2 who cancelled the route in late 2015 after less than a year of operations. However, at its peak in 2007 when both easyJet and Jet2 operated the route, 60,526 used the service. Given the huge potential for this route and that they have just opened a new base in Prague, I’d be very surprised if Ryanair didn't start flights to the Czech capital. A thrice weekly service would offer 59,130 seats.
Rome was one of the destinations that many thought Ryanair would operate to when they opened their Belfast base last year. Aer Lingus carried 40,000-43,000 annually when they flew to FCO, and easyJet carried 44,000-47,000 passengers when they flew to CIA. A thrice weekly service offering 59,130 seats seems highly plausible, especially given Ryanair’s huge presence at CIA.
The resumption of Toronto flights actually seems quite plausible. Passenger numbers to Toronto and nearby Hamilton were constantly between 35,000-40,000 per year. A thrice weekly seasonal Air Canada Rouge service would put 42,840 seats on the market - twice weekly would see 28,560 seats up for sale. Given that 7,356 passengers travelled to Vancouver from Belfast during its peak, a viable option could be Vancouver-Toronto-Belfast. The demand is there for a Toronto route, so fingers crossed Belfast is included in Air Canada Rouge’s next expansion plans.
The commencement of Virgin Atlantic 747 flights to Orlando during the summer period was a step in the right direction, however 5,831 passengers in 2015 is a long way off peak numbers of 29,933. Given that VA are planning on retiring their B744s in the next few years, the airline could establish a full seasonal service to MCO. A summer seasonal X2 weekly A330 service would offer 31,920 seats in addition to Thomas Cook’s charter seats. However unlikely, the passenger numbers were there when scheduled services were offered, so the possibility should not be ruled out.
easyJet carried 20,081 passengers on their seasonal Nice flights in 2015. Back when Aer Lingus also competed on the route, 54,783 passengers used the service. The demand could be there for a twice weekly year long service, with two additional frequencies during the summer months, offering a total of 52,040 seats.
Paris would also be capable of handling an increased service. Passenger numbers have almost halved since 2009 peak of 144,345. Ryanair doesn’t fly to its Beauvais base from any UK airports, so I doubt they’d fly from Belfast. easyJet however would probably be able to sustain between 8-9 weekly flights without too much trouble, offering up to 146,417 seats.
Barcelona handled 122,121 in its peak, but only 37,924 seasonal passengers in 2015. Ryanair and Jet2’s new flights to Girona will help increase capacity to the area, but clearly a year round service is viable. Four weekly winter flights, with 11 weekly flights during the summer would offer 134,070 seats on an easyJet A319.