Who would have thought that a visit by the EK CEO to a cabin furnishing supplier at Hurn could have led to so much discussion.
Most B747 are headed for imminent retirement and are not relevant in UK growth terms, although no-one mentioned the 747-800BBJ that is based and operated from Hurn.
The prospect of new links to hubs in the Middle East or Turkey from UK airports has all but disappeared into the mist since June, it is unlikely to return in the foreseeable future. The reality for UK regional airports with less than 5m pax per annum is even further away from what has been suggested, there is no prospect of any such new links in the foreseeable future.
Firstly, the Gulf carriers and Turkish each face substantial headwinds for different reasons, and not least because they compete with each other. Further expansion anywhere in the UK is unlikely for some considerable time for several different reasons.
EK have said publicly several times that the devaluation of the GB£ following Brexit vote has compromised their UK business profitability. The UAE currency is tied to the soaring US Dollar, EK recently and quietly canned their planned 4th daily Dubai to Gatwick, and generally are regarded as having too much capacity for the market.
EY, has publicly signalled job cuts, are still losing heavily in their investments in Air Berlin and Alitalia, rumours are rife that the EY CEO will leave this year. Retrenchment is on the cards with no UK growth on the radar.
TK are retrenching heavily and parking many aircraft due to a collapse in traffic over the past year due to security concerns. For the UK even BRS, which was rumoured a year or so back, is now a distant dream.
QR is adding single aisle aircraft and concentrating on other markets away from western Europe
After all this market adjustment, Emirates will probably come out on top, but its several years away.
LCC in UK are using increasingly larger aircraft for lower seat costs. This is one reason why Flybe struggles with sun routes away from absolute peak season - their seat costs are too high to compete profitably on sun routes for most of the year. Increasingly LCC are using and ordering aircraft of about 200 seats plus. The LCC are always looking for routes than can support year round profitable use of these aircraft. Runway slots and parking stands are sold out every summer at all larger airports south of BHX, but are more generally available in winter at all but LHR.
This creates a seasonal market for airports able to accept these aircraft without payload restriction for a summer only operation, not too far from London. Runway length is an issue at some of these airports. Landing distances even at BRS for instance are marginal for some of these aircraft types and SOU, like LCY is just too short for unrestricted operation of aircraft of this size.
For BOH as ever the scope for growth is with RYR and anyone else that wants to tap into greater London, but cannot get slots at the London Airports. EZY and Wizz are still possible but unlikely given 2016.
The more interesting prospect is Jet2 moving south. Shaking up Thomson and Thomas Cook. After introducing Stansted this year, BRS in 2018 is a reasonable bet and BOH in 2019. Even Ryanair have reacted by introducing Ryanair holidays. Interesting times as ever.
The BOH runway is a step up from that available at LTN and BRS and has not been a significant limiting factor for more than 20 years.
HNY to all
FF