BRISTOL - 4

[Bristol_Traveller]

Hello all,

MV - I can't shake off the years of BM being BD!

VIE - I put VIE lower on my list because it's a long block time from BRS, and not very useful for Western European hubbing. It would really only make sense for flying into Eastern Europe (which might go into decline) and onto OS' modest long-haul network. I'm not sure BRS-VIE point-to-point traffic is sustainable, even when VIE is looking gorgeous in the wintertime. They're taking delivery now of their new E195 aircraft, but I think they're pretty much 1:1 for the F100s.

ZRH - my thinking behind ZRH is that LX have a strong hubbing operation out of ZRH, a pretty attractive long-haul network, and they're taking delivering of their C-Series aircraft which would be "right-size" for BRS-ZRH (and less gas-guzzling than the Jumbolinos). They're also not afraid, bizarrely, of undercutting LH on fares ex-UK.

BE - quite happy for them to stay at CWL and EXT.

LO - they're up to their eyes in problems, and UK-Eastern Europe traffic is low-margin and likely to get under a lot of pressure in a few years. They can't possibly go head-to-head with FR and W6.

DY - would certainly be a wildcard. They have a base at LGW from which they operate TATL flights - MAN, BHX and EDI are pretty much all bucket-and-spade out of Spanish bases. If WW fold from BRS in March, then I think it's very unlikely we'd see a DY 787 trying to do TATL out of BRS. Even at the very limits of possibility, it still only makes sense (IMO) for an airline with connecting opportunities into the rest of the US - UA / AA / DL.

TK and QR - I just can't see the available traffic flows to fill a 737 or 330 to IST/DOH. It's a long block time, and they both already fly from BHX and LHR. Maybe I'm being harsh on TK.

EW - I think EW might arrive, but only because LH have said they're going to wrap SN into the EW business unit (which has the SN fliers up in arms about what it means for the future of SN, although many have pointed out that SN's service levels are already pretty EW-orientated). Otherwise, why put EW onto DUS/TXL/HAM etc. against EZY and "partners" BM?

It would be good to see a new scheduled airline arriving that isn't primarily leisure focused, not least because it feels like discretionary leisure travel is going to come under pressure in the coming years. As someone travelling fairly regularly to the US and Europe, the decline in the pound has had a painful effect on costs.