The chain
Long night at sporting event, fatigue
Dark overwater
Icing conditions
Snowing
IMC
Recently purchased aircraft
Wanting to get home that night
It routinely amazes me that people can afford these aircraft but are too cheap to hire a safety pilot or add up all the aforementioned circumstances and decide the right move is to spend the night in the Presidential suite of the four seasons and fly out the next morning after daybreak. If you can afford that aircraft you can afford to be cautious.