TOFO - I like 'zoomed in' as bigger picture can be talked away with spin and waffle!
On the procurement side in the past DE&S 'hedge' on the currency markets. I would surprised if it were costed below $1.40 and no more than $1.50. This is because if the contract purchase is completed with a better exchange rate then the Programme Manager gets a nice pat on the back (and a great annual report). So they are often pessimistic with the exchange rate to come in slightly under budget...sadly probably not this time.
LJ