Originally Posted by
ATC Watcher
SteinarN : ...this thread is not only read by people having a sound understanding of the "unsaid" and " not shown " items. They are used by many , including journos , as a kind of an " expert source" .
Yes Lemme is doing good posts, but those are only speculative ...
Only the investigation team and/or FDR will tell us if it was indeed down and when. Only then you can start talking about gliding ratio and " blaming" pilots for putting it down so so high...
I had responsibility for both flight data recording and communications while at Boeing, continuing most of my career on communications. One area we, as an industry, have been seeking is telemetry for use in both operational quality assurance and for air-safety investigation. Like it or not, the public has little tolerance for the glacial pace of aviation evolution, especially in the area of accident investigation.
Mode S transponders and ADS-B open up an new generation of analysis unrelated to air traffic control or collision avoidance.
Public companies like flightradar24.com have crowd-sourced a very comprehensive set of data and make this available in real-time. Not only can we examine the flight of interest, we can look at all the other flights too. This adds a whole new dimension of insight.
I have personally undertaken a quest to see how far I can get with the ADS-B data as the core of an analysis. I am only operating with position, track heading, ground speed, pressure altitude. There are other parameters available, and I am advocating for them as an enhancement to investigation. Only by working through the analysis am I able to fully appreciate what is missing.
I have looked at other accidents, notably EK521 and the Pence LGA overrun. In those cases, I was able to find the likely sequence of events (failure to add go-around power, landing long) right away.
I am not looking at assessing blame. I am trying to understand what happened. That does required digging deep and wondering about scenarios, and that does reek of speculation.
LMI2933 had significant loss of life, and therefore is much more deserving of analysis - it is the nature of aviation to learn from catastrophe.
I am looking for help to be sure my analysis reflects the technical issues accurately, and so I have decided to join pprune.org and airliners.net bulletin boards.
I find a litany of statements everywhere. Most of it is piece-meal, missing context. Some of it is plain wrong. Some of it is mis-guided. The point of the blog was to give me (and you) a single reference point from which I would aggregate all the info I stumbled upon, and then add considerable analysis based on my personal expertise.
If you tell me something is wrong, I will go hunt it down until it is for-sure, and I will revise the blog. No worries, I don't know everything, and I love to learn new things or think from unexpected perspectives. Running down a wrong path is not a waste, because you learn more about it and that can pay dividends.
I was lead engineer (control laws) for Boeing automatic flight controls, Thrust Management, for 757, 767, 747-400 and am very familiar with airplane systems. If you fly those planes, or 777 or 747-8, you are using thrust management, data link, flight data recording, and satcom systems I once led, or are directly based on developments I played a principal role in.
As supervisor for data link and satcom, I led the ability to for satellite voice and for ACARS/FANS to connect pilot and controller, to which I spend considerable time dealing with human factors and having to invent "comm messages" as a whole new category.
As a manager for terminal-area projects, i was tasked to work with NASA and the FAA to look at ways to reduce accidents in the terminal area, and we as group studied every accident report going back 20 years to search for improvements.
I am very accustomed to looking at a subset of data and applying it to complex systems and to airplane operation. As a (not current) private pilot (SEL, SES) with instrument rating, I have had a chance to try it all myself. But I am no line or experimental captain (plus I am not current anyway), and for this I am looking for help.
Also, I am not that familiar with the RJ85. I have only a subset of the manuals. For sure, love to hear from those with first-hand experience.
Forgive my writing style. I am a systems engineer at heart, so I write everything into positive statements that may come off as too confident or assured. I make mistakes, I get tunnel-vision, I can be over-confident, and I for sure don't know everything. But I love to learn, and I am not afraid to make a mistake.
I appreciate your suggestions. I have seen some people react almost with anger that I dare publish any information. I want to understand what those concerns are so I can address them. In the end, I am really just trying to figure out if we can use ADS-B to make aviation safer.
These observations stem from sparse ADS-B reports, an unauthorized copy of a related RJ85 Flight Crew Operations Manual, Vol 1. plus other references not known to be accurate in comparison to CP2933 airplane combined with best-intentioned judgements and helpful advice from online commentators, may have errors, and are in no way a substitute for the official accident investigation.