I see what your saying and predicting along time in to the future is pointless. But it is fairly clear that for at lest the next few years recruitment will be a fraction of what it has been over the previous, meaning movement up the lists will be much slower so weekend work, nights away and slow command times are a fact of life for any new joiner. Anyone joining 2 or 3 years ago was joining at the begging of a massive wave of recruitment so I doubt they were told the same thing.