I suspect we're generally in agreement about how things stand, but looking at it from different angles.
All the ATR guys, including the new hires, are most certainly having their terms and conditions defined by the VARA Pilots EBA of 2015. And yep, in clause 35.3(d) it certainly details the 10% transfer restriction. What I'm trying to point out though, is that EBA predates the move of the ATR operation from VARA to VAA.
Like all EBAs it has an expiry date which is 1/7/2018. Clause 27.2 pretty clearly states that when the EBA was negotiated back in 2015, VARA was already planning to move the ATR operation to VAA. Clause 10.11 also sets out the WRC would be amended in the event of the ATR operation moving to an entity subsequent to VARA after the transfer to the VAA AOC. I don't know if this clause has been invoked, however once the EBA expires (they should be negotiating subsequent agreements before that date really), I'd be surprised to see the ATR as part of the *new* VARA EBA given that the ATR operation is already no longer part of the VARA hierarchy.
Will the replacement EBA that applies to the ATR pilots still have a 10% clause? Will there be a seperate ATR VAA EBA? Will the ATR be integrated into the VA Short Haul agreement at some point? Remains to be seen. I suspect that it will be hard for the company to justify the 10% restriction given that all the ATR pilots have a position on the GDOJ and that they are integrated into VAA.