Australia has very few pilots training to be commercial pilots and many of those are foreign anyway. There are significant impediments to learning to fly, not withstanding the cost, the remuneration has been constrained in such a way, that the reward is diminished, this has feedback implications.
Agreed: being partly involved within training the figures already illustrate this. Couple this with CASA's latest brilliant move introducing Part 61 Licencing particularly where great difficulties are found creating/maintaining Instructor Ratings including Simulator Instructor ratings. Where in the past many of these were filled by retired pilots the current hassles and poor remuneration do not make it worth the effort.
The way it will probably play out here is through hiring of foreigners through 457 program which will circumvent any shortage.
If that's a local pilot shortage I assume it's for regionals and lesser paid Australian flying jobs that would see a need to attract foreign 457 sponsored labour?
Already this is increasingly occuring with employers regularly manipulating the scheme. Employers communicate with each other comparing notes how the scheme can be manipulated to their advantage. Couple this with an overworked Department of Immigration and Border Protection failing to vet and check all applications then 457 pilots will increase rapidly. Interestingly, as shown in another thread, their appears to b a steady stream of pilots moving to USA commuter jobs filling shortage experienced there.