Thanks Darkknight,
I was trying to broaden the discussion. There are big forces at play in the Western world, in demographics is destiny!You are most likely correct most will not research and read.
Neville thanks for your opinion as to how it will play out. I don't know exactly what Australia's crop of pathetic political representatives will do.Australia is already hollowed out to real estate interests, quick buck artists and with no cohesive national interest policy it faces a real choice between the USA and the new political overlords in China.
Nonetheless if I were Norwegian management I would expect to try it on too: Their motivation largely the same as any management, minimise cost.
Notwithstanding anything else, supply and demand will be artificially constrained by 457 visas, MPL and any other concoction for a while.Demographics are far bigger than most believe. Everyone's opinions are contextual, based upon their experience and age, mine too. We all tend to see things through our own experience, but this problem, of a lack of skilled workers in aviation, is not confined to any country, it is a global market. Whilst government policy may constrain a market, ultimately it matters little in the longer term. It was brewing from the conclusion of the Second World War, but it is certainly becoming a valid concern for western governments worldwide..
Supply will meet with demand eventually.
What I am trying to show, supported with fact is that all western economies have the same problem. Aging work forces are a symptom of Demographics. Unless you have sufficient echo generations (after the most numeric generation) economic pressures abound as tax revenues fall. You can already see it at play in Australia.
- The 'future fund' to create a way to fund previously unfunded yet huge public service pension entitlements.
- The raising of the pension age. (keeping older people at work longer)
- The rising pressures on the health budget
- Aged care coming into focus
- Australia's treasurer for the real estate lobby Scott Morrison (he worked at the Property council for nine years) looking at 'budget repair', these cries will become more visible in future budgets. They may even eventually have to reform negative gearing and superannuation concessions, much to the displeasure of the bolted on baby boomers.
It isn't just Australia. The USA has similar problems. Many pension funds are under demographic pressure, as redemption rates rise.
Dallas' Police and Fire Pension is running out of money - Business Insider
The funds require more people paying in than redeeming. Declining birth rates and entitlements promised by governments are often times not funded and simply kicked down the road for the next guy to deal with. This is something politicians excel at.
Aviation is no different to any other market, Oldmeadow and all the IR practitioners will be sweating this stuff as are governments as they wonder how to kick the can to the next guy when the pressure is rising.
There is plenty of factual information out there:
Australia’s Demographic Challenges — A More Flexible and Adaptable Retirement Income System
3101.0 - Australian Demographic Statistics, Jun 2015
http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat03.pdf
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...n/february2016
The BLS (USA), the esteemed ABS in Australia and the ONS in the UK. There is abundant literature explaining the magnitude of the problem.
There is also a lot of information regarding pilot training rates, both in the Asia pacific region, the USA and Europe. Australia has very few pilots training to be commercial pilots and many of those are foreign anyway. There are significant impediments to learning to fly, not withstanding the cost, the remuneration has been constrained in such a way, that the reward is diminished, this has feedback implications.
The Asian and the Middle East carriers are also competing in a global market, pilots of required aptitude are expensive to train and may need to increase remuneration further, inducing increased supply. They may do a lot of things
that entice supply from Australia, a traditional source of high quality pilots.. It depends how vital (strategic) they deem a pilot to their airlines, something Australian IR practitioners have undermined and indeed pilots themselves in previous decades, but as I alluded to Oldmeadow's context is based on his own experience, changing sides in 1989 and in those days aviation was indeed a more secular business.
Suggesting that pilots will be exempt from those opportunities and confined to Australia, by some bizarre form of protectionism, I think is a little extreme.
Globalisation does work both ways and you may well see further commuting opportunities (contracts) from Australia, into Asia to address their supply concerns. After all, as you quite rightly describe, living in Australia is 'desirable' and perhaps a commuting contract of substance may emerge to address a shortage, that brings Australian employers away from their myopic view of airline pilots and into a global market.
