Old 6th Dec 2016, 12:52
  #725 (permalink)  
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Schiphol
Posts: 350
Update 3 - Impact and break-up sequence based on publicly available photo and video material – based on material available to me by midday December 5th. The available photo/video material was limited and the quality low. Medium quality photo and video material is now available.


On the high ridge. One elevator half. The tail-mounted-speedbrake with part of the structure with hatch in front of it, plus part of the vertical tail.
Half way down the middle of the high ridge one MLG plus MLG-door. The other MLG is near the fuselage below.

In the hollow below. Identified components (high probability) are the almost complete left and right wing plus engine number2 (completely stripped of the cowling). The left hand aft pax door with 5 windows in front of it. The right hand aft pax door with 6-7 windows in front. Both pax doors still closed. One loose forward pax door. One engine nacelle. A large part of the fuselage belly.
At this moment in time still no trace of the other 3 engines. No trace of the cockpit section except for the loose almost intact main instrument panel of the captain (probably recovered and repositioned). No trace of the forward fuselage section. No trace of cargo hatches. No trace of any avionics 'boxes'. Limited wiring. Multiple galley carts but original position in the plane unknown.

Which means 3 of the 4 corners can be identified.


At this stage a very very premature guesstimate of a more probable impact and break-up sequence could have been:

a. Plane in a slightly pitch up attitude, pointing approximately in the direction of the VOR, at a relatively low forward speed, and a low vertical speed. Not known if the plane was on either an ‘aerodynamic glide path’ or by then following a ‘ballistic trajectory’. You need someone who connects the LKP and altitude with the impact location.
b. The intact and complete plane hits the high ridge. The impact breaks off the tail section behind the aft pax door, and leaves the tail and elevator with the (closed?) tailspeedbrake on top of the high ridge.
c. The plane shoots over the top. The impact banks and yaws the plane.
d. The plane pitches forward and starts contacting trees and ground. This breaks off the MLG’s and impacts the lower fuselage. Not clear if (one or more) engines already break off here.
e. The wing breaks off and takes part of the top of the center fuselage section with it. Complete wing plus engines and part of the associated torn fuselage structure flips over forward and starts the slide down. Cutting and flattening trees and uprooting and flattening a tall tree with an about 50cm diameter trunk in the last third.
f. The aft fuselage section continues the movement forward, rotates, and partially rolls over, during the slide down. The left hand aft door pointing down. At the end it slides on top of the wing and comes to a halt.

The question with this scenario is, how did anyone survive? One thing to do is comparing the actual seating arrangement with the scenario above. One seating arrangement shows players in front, journalists in the middle, and staff at the back. That layout though shows most cabin crew in passenger seats.

In Update2 I said that at least two different answers might be applicable.
The first is - pure luck - there are a number of possible explanations that improve chances. That would mean (with that seating arrangement) that the three players and the journalist were very lucky.
The second is - based on a maximum energy dissipation and lowest G's scenario - people sitting (probably on the left hand side) in the fuselage section aft of the wing and before the aft doorframe. Cabin crew having taken a passenger seat aft or in aft facing folding crew seat inclusive. That would mean that the stewardess and technician may have been seated there.

Finding photo's of the cockpit section would be priority1 if you would want to reduce the number of possible scenario's.

Sorry for the long post.
A0283 is offline