In demographics is destiny...
Each empire rises and falls on demographics: the Romans, Egyptians and even the West!
There is no way to 'buy' experience but of course there will be attempts to water down the levels of experience so the employer doesn't have to 'pay' for it. JQ and numerous subsidies kept absorbing the rising cost pressure of flight crew at Qantas. Oldmeadow was right for a while...However, .pilots are a global strategic asset. Walk into the Qantas administration buildings in the next few weeks and they will be deserted. All the while the operation tinkers along, revenue flows in through the Christmas period. Take the operational staff out (including pilots) and the thing grinds to a halt...
I don't know about others, but if I need a brain surgeon I want the best, most experienced and likely grey flecked hair and experienced specialist I can find. They also usually cost a bit more than the 'Dr. Nick Riviera version'. I would imagine a jet costing $250 million is worth the same consideration as well as the 450 odd souls on board.
The simple economics are thus:
- Markets clear at a price.
- Demand unmet will eventually be satisfied as the price increases.
- Employers will do everything to keep costs down, particularly as it relates to pilots.
- Pilots are a strategic asset.
- the skillset is expensive to attain, not everyone can do it and experienced crew save a lot of operating expense.
- Pilots are commanding a premium as the demographics at play reduce supply.
Is funny to watch the Oldmeadows et al in their respective IR towers design an adversarial scare campaign to tackle it..They already locked the operational staff out once!
Connections tell me Qantas and Jetstar are really short on crew with the problem persisting for many months, ironic really as their corporate IR vision helped reduce supply and turn people away from aviation as the reward was not there for the expenditure.
Many pilots looked elsewhere.
A great commuting contract would see a few more leave Qantas and Virgin...commuting contracts have the potential to expose the Achilles heel of Australian airline recruiting, and as supply continues to contract as pilot work forces age, the tension just builds. Sadly for airline managers who put Flight attendants on the 457 visa list and tag flight foreign crew through Australia, globalisation at least in this instance is a two way street: Whilst they love undermining onshore terms and conditions, they would much prefer the market closed and restricted when it suits them!
Hubris in action!
