Originally Posted by
Copenhagen
Given Heathrows cost base, just how does anyone intend to make a J31 into Heathrow profitable?
With the exception of Liverpool, does any city with any sort of catchment have the passenger mix to make Heathrow profitable? IOM, JER perhaps.
Shetlands, Dundee, Carlisle, Derry.... not a (profitable) hope. The days of Sheds flying from Heathrow to Birmingham aren't coming back.
Jersey could certainly justify a LHR route, either as an addition to LGW for BAW or as a replacement for it (with EZY remaining at LGW). As a sole BAW London destination Jersey to Heathrow could sustain 6 daily A319s; but I would expect the LGW frequency to reduce commensurately if the airline was to offer just 2/3 daily services to LHR. However, EZY have stated that they would be prepared to operate LHR to Jersey, so maybe we'll get a mix of LHR & LGW services from both airlines when the 3rd. R/W opens. In this event, expect up to 10 daily London-Jersey flights split between LHR & LGW. But, don't hold your breath !
The same goes for Guernsey (although BAW & EZY don't operate there). I could envisage up to 4 flights a day to LHR , with an appropriate reduction in LGW services. Although, I don't think BAW or EZY would have much interest in Guernsey without a R/W extension.