Tuck Mach, spot on
It is evident by the numbers "testing the waters" going from QF to JQ on the MOU, SO's to JQ, LWOP to J* Vietnam, JQNZ, EK, QR etc.
Having a little look outside the comforts of QF, without actual letting go of the golden Parachute.
Once their MOU/LWOP time was up, there was a steady stream of guys trying China Southern for a bit more LWOP, just to see how it was. (the US$30k a month tax free and AUS basing helps), or EK for the SO's, still with their spot back at QF if it all doesn't work out.
One of the QF SO's that went to EK says he is more likely to get a A380 command at EK before he is eligible for a FO spot at QF! That'd make it a tough choice.
There is even a Recruiting company owned by some QF guys for all your contract needs.
So now we have a segment of QF guys that have seen the green grass (it's all astro turf anyway
), the big decision now is where they want to live for the next 20/30 years.
Sandpit or Coogee?
Tax or no Tax?
Industrial protection or none?
Fast command or slow steady progress with legacy rosters?
IMHO this directly attributed to the new 787 deal being signed off, as the scare tactic of greenfields AOC, or JQ operating the -9, was too much to bear.
I am not condoning the IR behaviour of Oldmeadow and Joyce, but it has worked a treat. If they start to run out of Pilots, they can lobby the government to allow 457 visas to plug the gap in the short term, but the longer term view will be to shift flying to a cheaper entity or contract within the group, once again with the governments blessing to get around those pesky "transfer of business" rules.
Remember, we fly aeroplanes, they run companies. Our interests are not the same.