Craig,
Excellent video and simulator work. You clearly demonstrate that it is virtually impossible to estimate bank angle accurately unless the aircraft is flying directly towards or away from the observer. From a side on viewpoint, as soon as both wings are visible, the brain sees the aircraft in a more severe bank than it actually is.
This psychological effect doubtless contributes to popularity of airshows. The spectators see spectacular manouevers from the ground which are relatively benign from the pilot's seat.
Bank angles of up to 30 degrees are part of flying a normal instrument holding pattern, so are not normally of much concern to pilots, but it would look like a much steeper bank from many points on the ground.
Your reconstructed flight path and bank angles do indeed seem to match the accident report very closely. I doubt that anyone will ever be able to do a better job of recreating the flight path than this. Impressive work. Well done.