I've uploaded another video to Youtube. This is my best sketch so far of the plane's flight.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4_b1ekxKkY
The video includes several camera angles, simulating views by witnesses in different locations. It becomes abundantly clear why witnesses disagreed, and why the CAB and ALPA got the bank angle wrong.
Earlier I thought the shallow bank meant they should have been able to recover, but eventually I acquiesced to the consensus and agreed they couldn't. Now that I look at a simulation that ends in the shallow bank evidenced by the impact damage, it looks more than ever like it was close to recoverable. The video makes that clear as well.
I can't swear the video portrays the real flight, but it matches the site survey and the impact damage, and clarifies witness statements. I'm putting this out as an approximation of what the real flight must have been, with a certain degree of slop in all directions. My video matches the site survey within 1.5%, which feels pretty good.
I'm grateful to all who both agreed and disagreed with me. You've helped me clarify my thinking about this.