lookleft, bear with me on this response.
Reading between the lines, you are looking at making a move to get your command.
If this is correct, possibly, you should be looking at other options. As you pointed out, the success rate in the command eval process at AJX has been hanging around 50%.
You are looking at leaving a (I am assuming here) national carrier in your home country to become a contractor working in a foreign country, where the success rate is 50% and you have been bypassed by your current employer already. This implies a deficiency, which may well trip you up in AJX.
Think carefully of making a move just to get the command, look at all the possibilities and plan on worst case scenario. If that did occur, would you be happy at AJX.
If you are looking for a move to the left seat, better to go to a LCC in SE Asia, there are many around, get the command there and then look at contracting as an experienced captain in China or elsewhere.
not trying to be nasty but trying to get a realistic point of view across.