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Old 8th Oct 2016, 09:04
  #24 (permalink)  
RAT 5
 
Join Date: Jun 2000
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But you guys really don't know your (our) economic history.

The current economic climate for becoming a pilot has a very short history.
What has changed dramatically in then past 15 years; and it is really only that short, is the financial entry point for pilots to airlines. At the end of the 90's the TR was often paid for by the airlines. You gambled with paying for the CPL and looked for a job later. Another option introduced in 90's was bonding. That didn't cost you anything, only time.
Then the huge expansion started at the beginning of 00's. The traditional CPL was being replaced by MPA schemes. Airlines were overwhelmed with cadet applications and introduced self-funded TR courses. CTC schemes grew up, P2Fly, CPL + TR + 6 months line training schemes popped up. The whole market place changed hugely. Entry costs went up and rewards went down. The growth of LoCo's changed everything, even for the big players. But the big players didn't dumb-down completely, not yet. There is a very transparent relationship for a wannabee to see between self-funded entry costs and what career and rewards one might hope for. IMHO the % of cadets flocking to join the self-funded schemes, AND who expect to spend >10years in that same company, is quite small. I'd expect many to grab whatever lifeboat is passing to 'get on the ladder' and then search for more glamorous or financially rewarding pastures ASAP.
I think cadets who want to gain an MPA CPL and huge debt, and then hope they can find a job later to repay the debt, are dwindling because the money source to lend the money is dwindling. I know of many who finished CPL flight school >3 years ago and are still waiting for interview, anywhere. It doesn't send signals of confidence to the next generation.
As has been said survival of the LoCo is via continued expansion. RYR and the other big ones are like fish, they have to keep moving to breath.
To crew that expansion they need to introduce schemes taking a cadet from zero to type rating to RHS within a given time frame and known transparent financial package. They order a/c many years ahead, they need to do the same with home-grown pilots. If they don't it would not be a surprise to find a/c sitting on parking waiting for crew. The idea that expansion could be crewed by the airlines that were driven to go bust is long gone. The expansion needs to be managed in total. That requires vision and commitment. The cadet joins the scheme knowing what is involved and what they will get out of it over a given period. It's an eyes open entry rather than groping in the dark and hoping for the best.
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