I don't mean to come across as a naive starry eyed wannabe, I went to the integrated schools at the ripe old age of 18, I passed the easy aptitude tests and was fed all the
PR, my wise and cynical family rightly steered me away and low and behold the crash happened a few months later. I thankfully escaped unscathed to train another day.
I'm fully aware of the cycle system in aviation. Although, I'm in it for the long haul excuse the pun. The stock market is the reference point if you like and it works the same way. If you look back the last 100 years the markets have went in cycles, but overall they have steadily grown. So, in theory, I'll catch the upturn eventually.
Cue Ryanair,
MOL, amongst others, business strategy is generally expansion, expansion, expansion, stop expanding and the shareholders will get cold feet. In the long run FR and others will have to recruit pilots for the pointy end if they want to keep afloat; despite what the markets do, short of a nuclear meltdown. Thus, with the amount of a/c orders so big versus pilots available this is why I think RYR and others are in for a crewing problem.
In around about way I've just explained the old looming pilot shortage theory I will concede, yea it will probably turn out to be less dramatic in reality. What I'm saying is they can't keep reducing salaries and inc training costs infinitely, there is a bottom line....somewhere!