The only party who might win in this dirty game
This presupposes that was happened was a deliberate act that went as planned.
Whether it's the nutty "the Russians tried to shoot down their own plane to invade" or the nutty "the Americans told the Ukrainians to shoot it down so everybody could blame Russia" conspiracy theory, it is illogical to assume malice when the same result can be explained by stupidity. As Hanlon's razor goes.
The least you can say is that, if we assume the more plausible scenario of a cock-up, the "rebels" were the only party which was actively shooting down planes at the time. The evidence that the missile launched from an area they controlled is pretty strong. Likewise the evidence for the type of missile.
Also, I'd like to point out that if we compare the Western story of what likely happened with the Russian one, at least the West has been consistent. Russia has changed from phantom Ukrainian SU-25s and SU-27s to Ukrainian BUKs and conspiracies. Shortly after the crash Russian officials came on TV showing "radar images" that showed this and that...two years later they are showing entirely different radar images that tell a different story which actually contradicts the first entirely.
The only thing consistent in the Russian position thus far is that "we nor the rebels could possibly be responsible" but they've invented loads of clearly bogus stories in the process which does not help them look any more believable now. Russian propagandists have paraded "experts" from organizations that do not exist on Russian state TV, used obviously faked "satellite imagery" etc. They do not behave like a country that has the facts on its side, to say the least. Their BS revelations are also nicely timed to coincide with planned releases of the Dutch investigation board.