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Old 16th Sep 2016, 12:36
  #44 (permalink)  
lederhosen
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
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From my perspective as someone that has invested in A380 leases it is indeed an interesting time. In my case I invested in Air France frames, believing AF were more likely to support the A380 long term for political reasons and were unlikely to default.

Most leases are initially 10 years after which you have got nearly three quarters of your initial investment back, not of course accounting for time value of money. If the lease is extended you start to make money helped also by the way it all works tax wise. So if the aircraft never flies again and incurs expenses sitting in the desert it will have been a poor investment, although not as disastrous as some shipping investments recently.

The real question is at what level the leasing companies are able to agree new leases. As no one has yet published anything it seems that the poker game is ongoing. My gut feel is that there will be some pretty deep discounts, reducing the overall returns to people like me but kickstarting the second hand market. Fortunately mine have a while to go by which time hopefully BA or the Chinese will have shown their cards and got the market moving.

Long term I am still pretty bullish that the existing aircraft have a 20 year life particularly if oil stays cheap, although I am not persuaded that Airbus will sell a lot more new frames given the lack of enthusiasm so far.
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