Going seasonal from Oct17 too. Bit of a run down in AA ops.
Interesting to see how this is unfolding. With the weaker exchange rate I was expecting TCX and VS, with their heavier dependence on UK originating traffic, to be the first to blink. However it's the US carriers leading the cuts to UK regional capacity this winter and next year (albeit so far MAN appears to have been spared any cuts for next summer). Meanwhile TCX and VS have actually embarked on expansion plans from MAN for next year. Just shows how unpredictable the airline industry can be !
I expect the US carriers with their global networks have decided they can make more money elsewhere with those assets in the short term - fair enough. TCX and VS meanwhile are much more "eggs in one basket" with the UK/US market. Perhaps they are taking a longer term view and grabbing the opportunity to tighten their grip on the UK regions while UA/AA play with their toys in other markets ? Also TCX and VS don't have such significant networks elsewhere to redeploy their aircraft - especially TCX.
No doubt AA, like some others, will attempt to lay all the blame for these cuts on brexit. However I suspect a significant amount of damage to UA/AA's revenue has been brought on by themselves, by continuing to supply an outdated, poor value and at times hopelessly unreliable product to MAN and the rest of the UK regions. In doing so they left the door wide open for carriers like TCX and VS to come in and do it better or cheaper (in AA's case both !!). Even the much trumpeted arrival of the AA 787 on ORD this summer turned out to be an operational disaster, to the extent it had to be pulled earlier than planned and reverted to 767s (oh and by the way, the AA ORD is cancelled again today !!).
With better quality competition going west from VS, TCX, and soon SQ, it will be interesting to see just how long the AA/UA seasonality will be next summer for JFK, ORD and IAD. Longer term will they continue with the same business plan (skim the summer market with a cr@p product), rise to the competition, or simply disappear ?