Crews are sternly warned against overflying any kind of land when approaching NCE on one of the normally used circling approaches there. Also, the French are quick to fine those who do not adhere to their rules. I have heard of someone who received a nasty letter for just daring to request an ILS instead of the VOR A approach...
The weather seems rather standard for NCE, not too exciting and definitely not prone to cause such a massive drift away from the centerline. Also, if one just tracks the Promenade des Anglais while staying a bit out at sea, one will not only be legal, but also end up very nicely lined up with 22R.
Has the flight crew been to NCE and/or flown a 22 approach before?