Originally Posted by
bafanguy
"The regionals will have to hire from Europe and Canada."
Slug,
I'd expect that if things here were as bad as all the hand wringing and gnashing of teeth by experts would seem to suggest, the regionals (and TP freight feeders who advertise constantly) would've made more of an effort to get the ruling junta to allow expats here; there appears to be at least some interest from them in coming. So far, I don't see any of that happening and it'd be a hard secret to keep (and why would they anyway ?). They've had access to Aussies for long enough that any formal pursuit of that supply would've happened by now if they intended to use it; nothing...zero...nada in a formal industry/company-initiated effort that I've heard of.
Barring any events yet to emerge, the only conclusion I can draw from the empirical evidence is there are enough pilots to keep the seats filled and wheels turning despite the meddling of the kakistocracy.
We're only in the very beginning of the crisis. United and their acquisition, Continental, outsourced flying to a ridiculous degree. Like putting ERJs on flights between Newark and Atlanta. They can't bring on new 737s fast enough, their customer satisfaction scores have cratered because of regional cancellations due to understaffing. Delta bought all of AirTran/Southwest's 717s because they had to replace the DC-9-50s coming offline from Northwest, plus regional cutbacks.
I'm lucky in that my parents paid for my college education and flight training. However for kids without that advantage, why choose a college degree in flight? You're going to be 100k in debt (if you go public school), and stuck hauling freight on a Metroliner for $17 an hour after graduation since you can't get a job at a regional.
I think university programs provide a modicum of responsibility for future pilots that a Florida/Arizona ATP program does not. They'll take your money for a third/fourth retake of a checkride. The older guys I fly with are mostly former military. I will never compare myself to them, even if they were humping a C-130. Those guys are retiring at an unbelievable pace. A got a line, albeit in a very unpopular domicile, within a year.
"Show me the $$$ (and the quality of life) and I'll apply to a regional. Until then I'll stick with corporate/135."
Different strokes for different folks. I always saw myself hauling passengers as the ultimate bus driver. I have loved commercial aircraft from when I was a kid and watched planes take off at Gravelly Point.