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Old 22nd Aug 2016, 07:39
  #1052 (permalink)  
Alphaprot
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
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So based on what we know so far from the accident and the culture of the region, airline and regulator, who or what is going to be found to BLAME. This is not an analysis of who is to blame!

Latent factors:
Weak regulator that lets the airline do pretty well whatever it likes.
Local Chief Pilots and EVP Flt Ops who think maximum automation is the safest philosophy, although both manufacturers think otherwise.
Training Department that is seriously under Fleet managements thumb
Airline that treats all FTL limits as targets and as negotiable.
Boeing A/THR mode subtleties that can confuse
Regulator and Airline both agree burying head in sand on bad things is best philosophy, so as not to damage country's reputation.
To ensure this the regulator is allegedly using two of the airline's staff on secondment to help with the investigation

On the Day factors:
Local Captain, who has only been a Capt for about a year
F/O relatively new to airline.
Although rested, flight and landing took place at circadian low.
Summer wind conditions that can be fluky causing direction shifts close to ground.

Blamestorming Analysis:
Boeing and Rolls Royce will get minimal blame otherwise they will demand a proper investigation. The airline and country brand must be protected at all costs, so the airline will get minimal blame, maybe a little placed on the training department. The Capt will receive little blame, as he is a local and you do not want to question the quality of local pilot training and skills, or the command upgrade process. The Aussie F/O might get some blame for not supporting the Capt properly, unless the Qantas unions can protect him. ATC likewise may get some of the blame for confusing the pilots by giving them an instruction during the G/A, but that won't stick very well. Only solution BLAME Mother Nature, as plainly severe windshear caused this accident to happen. There, everybody happy now.

One thing we are never likely to know is the Truth
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