Originally Posted by
em3ry
Computers know how to do things but don't know what they are doing.
If you want the computer to know what is happening then it seems to me that all it really needs to be able to do is to run a simulation and look ahead to see what is going to happen. I think Google self-driving cars do exactly that. (As do our own brains)
Some of the recent airplane crashes would have been prevented if the computer had simply been able to look ahead and see what was going to happen
Google patent:
https://www.google.com/patents/US9248834
But computers in aircraft already have this capability which you use all the time. The FMC takes the uploaded list of waypoints, speed schedules, weight information etc., and creates a 'trajectory' description. The FMS then provides guidance to follow the trajectory and slow down/speed up; climb descend to follow the aircraft trajectory and meet the required time of arrival.
In research, aircraft have been able to forecast their touchdown time at destination to within 5 seconds at the time weight came off wheels for a 2 hour flight 'knowing' their trajectory for the entire flight..
The more complex the requirement the more extended the development of the computer system required and the more exhaustive the testing. The more safety related the computer function, say dealing with common and less common failure modes. the more certification testing is required. All these are expensive.
So it is has been easier for the system and software development project to assume that as there is always a qualified pilot, each time the computation becomes difficult for whatever reason - sound an alarm and "you have control"
Now it is being found that 'qualified pilot' may on occasion be an overstatement for many even 'routine' contingencies. At the same time computers are getting significantly more powerful and for that matter analyst/programmers much better.
As with all things aviation whether we like it or not the arbiter is cost. As soon as wetware pilots are more expensive than the automation that appears just as capable, they will be replaced by automation.