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Old 16th Aug 2016, 10:51
  #81 (permalink)  
safetypee
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
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His dude, Full Wings, et al,
We, individually and the industry, tend to focus on 'last chance' defences; primarily because we are close to these operational scenarios, but also because of human - hindsight bias.
Greater safety benefits could be identified by working backwards along the timeline to consider other contributing factors and safety opportunities.

Overruns rarely have origins in a single factor; the much flaunted 'unstable approach' does not cause and accident, nor the failure to decide to go around; e.g. contributors; unstable approaches, tailwind (long landing), braking action, situation surprise, performance knowledge.

Many of these factors can be identified in advance - in the pre landing briefing, where weak or lacking information can be considered (braking action, wind speed), or safety boundaries tightened (last point of touchdown - first third on a long runway reduced to less than 1500ft on a short runway).

The objective is to reduce the burden of tactical decision-making in situations which could limit human performance, to the periods of strategic decision-making, before commencing the approach; briefing, thinking ahead, (weather CBs in the area, wet/ flooded runway, change of wind direction). Thus the decision-making process becomes 'should I be starting the approach', and for a continuing approach with the continuous comparison of the perceived situation with that in the plan (briefing).

"A briefing is a flight-plan for the mind"

His dude #81, freighters, fatalities, failure to act; regrettably I agree.
Again the industry needs to consider alternative views of safety - reducing the risk of harm in future operations. Every overrun has the potential for fatalities, many non fatal hull loss overrun accidents have been very close to a catastrophic outcome, e.g. A340 Toronto, 777 SFO, 777 DUB, 737 Jamaica.
Airbus provides a refreshing, alternative view, of safety statistics.
We need to change the way in which we think about safety, using statistics, training, operational guidance, and risk assessment.
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