EGAC,
Interesting read your two scenarios. I'd add a third scenario.
C) the route under indexes in terms of business class passengers compared to their other routes on the Atlantic. Add no onward connectivity at BFS to UK and Europe. There are opportunities redeploy the unit to another route, while probably collecting many of the regular high value customers ex Dublin, like the poster who is a frequent flier with a large account of miles.
The 757 is a superb aircraft and very cost effective as has been well demonstrated to date. Its very discovery as suitable for TA ops has opened opportunities for UA, not just in on thin routes but on multi frequency routes. The airbus 321 neo will emerge as the replacement with a number of airlines. Then consolidation will play is part too.
The US is down to a few major carriers now after decades of losses and often a real lack of commercial reality. Now they are away from chapter 11 and must operate on a commercial basis. This will see them seek value for money and return on investment, so other airports may just feel the effects of this.
Less airlines means the airports are generally in a weaker position as airports don't have a lot of plan B options should airlines decide to pull out...
Last edited by EI-BUD; 14th Aug 2016 at 04:41.