So, if:
- The aircraft was flying slowly enough to impact at tail-strike attitude (at least 10 degrees nose up)...
Then it can't have been travelling much faster than 120kt ground speed (which is 3000m per minute, or 50m per second).
And if:
- It impacted the ground near the far end of a 4500m runway...
Then it has flown for nearly 1.5 minutes since it arrived over the landing threshold and presumably conducted a go-around (or windshear escape).
So, one can hardly surmise that the accident is due to slow engine spool-up or premature retraction of the landing gear.
Neither can one surmise that the thrust levers were not advanced as they couldn't possibly have flown for a further 90 seconds without thrust.
Now, if, as it seems:
- It impacted the ground with landing gear "in transit"; and
- Full gear retraction takes approx 12 seconds...
Then the gear lever must have been selected UP less than 12 seconds prior to impact. Let's call it 10 seconds.
At 120 kts, 10 seconds is 500m. Suppose initial impact was 500m from runway end, the gear cannot possibly have been selected UP until 1000m prior to runway end. That is 3500m from the landing threshold. At least 60 seconds from the landing threshold.
If you had attempted a go-around (or windshear escape), and for a full 60 seconds of subsequent flight, your aircraft is still not climbing away (that would be a
very long 60 seconds), is it possible the following would be going through your mind (as either PF or PM)?
"Aircraft not performing, have I done everything? TOGA? Thrust? Flap? Only gear to go, still waiting for positive rate! Waiting, waiting... ****, we have run out of runway! We'll crash if we don't do something. We can't get more thrust, what do we have left? Drag! Will getting rid of the drag save us? Can't think of anything else... Gear Up..."
Yes, I acknowledge that retracting flap is not part of a windshear escape, but we don't know whether they were performing a windshear escape yet. Perhaps flap retraction also only occurred as a subsequent attempt to save a non-performing aircraft.
Regardless, my main point is that is the little evidence available indicates that if indeed the gear was selected UP, it didn't happy early in the manoeuvre. It wasn't selected UP until seconds before impact. And it's conceivable that retracting the gear could have been a well-intended last-ditch effort to save an otherwise doomed aircraft.