MSOCS,
unlike the F-35 which will return more to the Exchequer than we put in, when all is totted up
Please provide an explanation why you think what you think Turbine D. If you're saying it because the Program won't make the 2300 jets touted, then sure, that diminishes the return; by exactly how much will be determined by the final production run numbers. You clearly seem to know these so do share.
1. Assume for a moment the US DOD will purchase the full allotment of F-35s, all models. Here are the current prices being planned on and proposed to Congress:
Budget Costs for F-35B $152.8M for FY 2016 aircraft to $140.1M for FY 2017 aircraft ($143.8M average cost each for 311 aircraft)
First real US Navy buys for F35C start in FY 2018 estimated at $234.8M each (4 aircraft)($144.6M average cost each for 369 aircraft)
F-15A gross/weapon system cost FY2016 $120.8M, FY2017 $113.07M($121.1M average cost each for 1763 aircraft)
Keep in mind the average costs include aircraft that have been built and are being flight tested of which many or all will require retrofitting and upgrades once true production is achieved. These figures come from financial data from the US DOD.
2. So with this in mind I am looking at a bigger picture than perhaps you are as it may apply to UK procurement and your questions. First and foremost, unless the Bank of England purchased US dollars prior to Brexit and set those dollars aside for F-35B purchases and perhaps F-35As, you can plan to pay 15% or more than thought before Brexit. This is due to the value of the Pound's fall in value verses the US Dollar. This disparity will not be self correcting anytime soon.
3. IMO, You will not receive any rebates from L-M. Currently, in fact, there are deadlocked talks going on between L-M & the US DOD as to what future F-35 cost and prices are going to be. Up until now pricing for the most part has been based on cost plus contracts, a sweetheart deal for L-M. The plan as put forth by the DOD procurement chief has been to "gradually" move to fixed pricing. However, he and the DOD are under great pressure to make this move sooner, not later, ASAP. L-M has threatened the US DOD with the need to increase prices as they will have to borrow money to pay suppliers if the pricing issues aren't resolved very soon. L-M announced very recently their quarterly profits were near their highest levels ever, mainly due to the F-35 program, which is like throwing gasoline on the fire. This profit windfall will end with fixed pricing, but the financial gurus on Wall Street will want more, not less as well as the L-M stockholders, for every fiscal quarter going forward. L-M will have to deliver one way or the other, price increases for aircraft and/or price increases for spare parts, same goes for P&W engines and spare prices, productivity and/or material cost reductions reach a point of no return.
4. You should know just as the UK has defense budget restraints, so does the US. The US Navy isn't going to roll over and play dead on affordability of the F35B and F-35Cs. There are other crucial items that have to be addressed and a major one is this:
10 U.S. Code § 5062 - United States Navy: composition; functions
(a)The Navy, within the Department of the Navy, includes, in general, naval combat and service forces and such aviation as may be organic therein. The Navy shall be organized, trained, and equipped primarily for prompt and sustained combat incident to operations at sea. It is responsible for the preparation of naval forces necessary for the effective prosecution of war except as otherwise assigned and, in accordance with integrated joint mobilization plans, for the expansion of the peacetime components of the Navy to meet the needs of war.
(b)
The naval combat forces of the Navy shall include not less than 11 operational aircraft carriers. For purposes of this subsection, an operational aircraft carrier includes an aircraft carrier that is temporarily unavailable for worldwide deployment due to routine or scheduled maintenance or repair.
(c)All naval aviation shall be integrated with the naval service as part thereof within the Department of the Navy. Naval aviation consists of combat and service and training forces, and includes land-based naval aviation, air transport essential for naval operations, all air weapons and air techniques involved in the operations and activities of the Navy, and the entire remainder of the aeronautical organization of the Navy, together with the personnel necessary therefor.
(d)The Navy shall develop aircraft, weapons, tactics, technique, organization, and equipment of naval combat and service elements. Matters of joint concern as to these functions shall be coordinated between the Army, the Air Force, and the Navy.
Sean J. Stackley, assistant Navy secretary for research, development, and acquisition and the three admirals who joined him in testifying before Congress said there was little hope in the Navy getting back up to 11 carriers before 2021, when the USS Gerald R. Ford is finally scheduled to come on line after lengthy construction delays and cost overruns.
"There's no doubt that being at 10 carriers ... is exacerbated by the fact that the Ford won't be now deployable until '21," said Rear Admiral Thomas Moore, program executive officer for aircraft carriers. "The law says, you have to be 11 carriers, but it's only measured by when we commission Ford ... We’ll be in a period of 10 carriers here until about 2021."
When all is said and done, the Ford carrier will cost nearly $18B and before it is deployed, another one will have to be started so the oldest of the existing of the 10 can be retired. To make matters worse, the 10 carriers are deployed for longer periods of time and when they come in, the repairs are more costly and lengthy to the point where only 5 carriers may be at sea at a given time as recently evidenced.
5.There are far greater needs than the singular most expensive program, the F-35 across all the Services and there will be no favoritism given to the F-35 Program. So you can see the play going on here. Besides, there is the spares and maintenance cost issues, yet to be determined as time goes on. So you tell me, how many can the UK afford to buy?
Also, tell me why the F-35 or any aircraft for that matter returns money to the Exchequer (Bank of England these days), I don't believe any have or do, nor does that happen here in the US, e.g., money returned to the US Treasury. We have acres of old planes parked out in Arizona, baking in the sun. The aircraft that are operational are an asset, but don't generate cash, nor do the ones in Arizona.