Originally Posted by
philbky
Boeing's problem isn't just aviation or even airline driven. As a former US President once said, 'it's the economy stupid'.
Eight years ago the world economy slumped. This should have been the time airlines would have been ordering airframes to replace the 747-400 on a like for like basis.
There are very cogent reasons why they didn't. The trend to twins was, and still is, in full swing. Apart from fuel, spares and maintenance economies the downward pressures on air fares militated for big twins. With stormy economic conditions airlines looked to minimise the cost of fleet replacement. The same economic conditions cut the amount of freight being carried, and freight carried in passenger aircraft holds was, and still is, often the difference between a profitable flight and a loss.
Given a reduced economy, a reduced amount of freight, a reduced overall cost of passenger tickets and the ability of large twins to carry freight and at the same time reduce overall costs, it was a no brainer that the 747 replacement would not be on a like for like basis.
As for pure freighters, they are a niche market and, specialist carriers apart, with reduced levels of freight compared to previous years the major carriers found no need to buy.
Economists are good at telling us that the world economy is, in general, cyclical. What they are not good at, be they employed by governments, banks, companies or airlines, is forward thinking and planning for the cycle. Knee jerk reaction to economic change is the norm, with little forward projection.
What is unusual in the economic conditions experienced since 2008 is the sustained and growing numbers of passengers carried. This shows no signs of slowing and this brings its own problems.
VLAs will be required in the future both to carry ever growing numbers of passengers, large freight and to deal with slot restrictions. Whilst Boeing may well run down and eventually close 747 production, someone, somewhere will have to produce an equivalent.
I think you're close to the truth. Fact is, the world economy has slowed down significantly and has barely recovered from the 2008 shock. The 747-8(F) business case, rosy production number forecasts and customer orders date back from the pre-2008 era, an era where there was no end in sight for consumer spending and globaliszation seemed limitless.
Of course the stock markets are up thanks to the cheap money that's sloshing around in the financial system, but everyday people have gained little if anything at all.
As
philbky suggested, the trend is clearly towards slightly smaller but extremely fuel efficient twin-engined aircraft, flying more point to point instead of through big hub and spoke systems, throwing a lot of extra belly capacity on an already tight cargo market.
I guess there will always be a market for specialized oversized loads requiring large aircraft like the 747-8 or AN124, but the bulk of the cargo requirements (consumer electronics, mail, horses, luxury cars, aircraft engines, chemicals, oil drilling equipment etc) will either find it's way into the bellies of passenger aircraft, or onboard smaller full cargo aircraft like (converted) 767'Fs, 777F's, A330F's and the existing fleet of 747's (-400F, BCF, -8F). Any possible future cargo derivatives of the 777X and A350 will only accelerate the 747-8's demise IMHO.
As for the US Presidential aircraft, I can honestly not see them buying a foreign made A380, and since apparently there's a requirement for 4 engines (4 long haul?
) there is not a lot of competition for the 747-8.