I've refrained from commenting up until now, but so much detritus has been written about the coup.
There are no halcyon days of secularist military rule in Turkey. The last 'proper' military intervention (previously permitted by the Constitution, written by the Army after the 1960 coup) saw upwards of 500,000 people being detained, thousands tortured and hundreds dying in detention.
Over the last 10 years (partly driven by EU accession criteria) Erdoğan (pronounced Erdo-whan and please, please not erdo - gan) has removed some of the constitutional privileges of the Turkish General Staff. They are still not fully under democratic control (ie they answer, or at least did answer to the President and not the Minister of Defence). Over the last month or two, Erdoğan had set the conditions for a mutiny and the plans were rumbled by the MiT late last week, causing the plotters to bring their half-hearted plans forward.
The TGS is a sclerotic organisation; there is non concept of jointery or Mission Command. The forces are purely configured for territorial defence, although both the Navy and the Army have ambitious - overly ambitious - power projection programmes. There's no effective NCO cadre in the Army, which is comprised of 75% conscript Anatolian peasants (anyone with a bit of money or University education can get out of conscription with ease).
The coup attempt was illegal and a bloody challenge to a democratically elected government (Erdoğan received 49.5% of the vote in a reasonably free and fair election late last year). His voter base have done very well under him; personal incomes have trebled in the last 15 years. We in the West may not like him (and probably favour a secular military-style government) but he is popular and delivers the goods for business and the people.
Incirlik's Turkish Base Cdr was detained last week and has been replaced by an Army Brigadier (and Deputy Hd of Intelligence in the TGS). Operations are continuing but I understand that real life support is limited at the moment. As for the SSA, let's not discuss that. It will never (repeat) never fall out of US control.
The West will need to suck up to Erdoğan - as we need him as a bulwark against irregular migration, ISIS terrorism, you name it. Historically, these events are part of a regular pattern in Turkey over the last 200 years as it struggles between being Occidental or Oriental.
The Western 'white' Turks naturally aspire to a European lifestyle. They are educated, urbane and well-travelled. The Eastern Anatolians (locally referred to as 'Black Turks') have never been served well by the elite of the last 200 years. Erdoğan has given them hope (and cynically invested in them - the dustiest town now has a gleaming hastane (hospital), several new mosques and a new school). There's been extensive infrastructure investment; a month ago during a trip back to Turkey I travelled on the new HST from Istanbul to Ankara. Absolutely brilliant and constructed in record time. The metro in Istanbul is also amazing - modern, clean, efficient and cheap!
As for Erdoğan amd his love-up to Putin - this is out of mutual economic necessity. Turkey and Russia have been to war at least 10 times and it has always ended bad for Turkey (it's all been about control of the Turkish Straits); I just hope that the anti-Academic Erdoğan remembers lessons from history...
Last edited by Whenurhappy; 22nd Jul 2016 at 20:02.