This is only going to go one way - and it ain't going to be pretty.
1. Round up all the "intellectuals" - aka anyone who may harbour secularist tendencies and make it very clear to them that their livelihoods (at least) depend on being good little muslims/AKP members. Stand by for gradual exodus of said people to Western / Southern Europe.
2. Watch as tourism receipts in Turkey plummet. Holidaying in dictatorships only appealing to certain type of tourist. Result - lots of unemployed, angry, shouty Turkish people (the less angry shouty ones having quietly left, see 1 above).
3. Watch as immigration weapon against EU deployed - unless you bung us some cash and/or be nicer to that nice Mr Putin (he's our friend really).
4. EU caught between rock and hard place. Syria not getting any better any time soon. Kurdish issue festering. EU anti-immigration issue boiling over.
Wouldn't hold out much hope of Incirlik being an operational NATO base in 5 yrs.