KA, anyone listening?
Ok, Im worried, I want to reply to Australia2's comments about the 'boatshed', but rather than hijack another CX thread, i thought it was worth a thread of its own.
A2, as you rightly point out, experienced pilots aren't exactly flooding through the doors, and absolutely, a command pass in KA in 18 months is a big ask. With the recently announced command course tweak, lets see what transpires. I would expect a similar failure rate, regardless of where CT5 falls, the ST's arent going to take them any less lightly. I can understand where a candidate has been in the system 10 years and never slipped up, a known quantity slips up on the day, give him another crack, absolutely. What about a guy who has done a total of 2 PC's? Would he benefit from more training or another check? We all know the answer to that.
Obviously the zero % pass rate finally sunk in to someone, probably the accountant. "Its just driving a minibus around china" after all right? I can hear the arguments now, "there are plenty of people around China doing it, and they aren't having accidents, so make the course easier and get them on line earlier! Our risk models show we can bend one or two jets and still get a bonus, so make it happen!"
I dont envy the decision makers, getting heat from the Panda holding the purse strings to make it 'easier and faster', at a time when they need to be beefing up the 'training component' to support the new direct entry guys blasting off into China with poorly maintained, very old aircraft, to many unmanned ports, (ie no engineering support what so ever) and at a time when the engineering back here in HK has fallen to a point where safety events associated with the new company are being 'normalised', (ie reports dropping off, but nothing improving, its just the way we do it here now) and they give this new 18 month commander an FO with total time of less than a couple of hundred hours, (maybe the equivalent of 3 rosters total time), "there you go son, don't bend it, oh, and remember the demerit point system, we will sack the next guy who... (insert trainers hot topic here... goes off coms, tilts the radar up a bit, says "clear left" instead of 'left side', deviates around weather without a clearance and squawking 7700, 'lets' the FO slam it in, or doesn't give away sectors, to save his ass from being sacked for letting the FO slam it in).
Isn't anyone else just the slightest bit concerned about this combination of factors? Anyone? I genuinely fear the consequences of being right on this one.
The real gorilla in the room is this, why is it 18 months to command? With no, read zero plan, no new projected growth or fleet increase or new destinations or new slots or or or... Anyone? Yes, recent fleet letter says they will start to review the fleet. It takes 6 months to get an ex CX airframe in the system, how long is the order list at scarebus? 5 years? Imagine what the 320s and 321s will be like after 5 years of CASEL 'maintenance.' And the CEO thinks our greatest need is new paint, and a third runway. I'm inspired.