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Old 11th Jul 2016, 08:15
  #643 (permalink)  
nowherespecial
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
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Buzz,

In essence, the headline for us aviators is leasing of aircraft but the court is looking at all overall debt. For CHC a lot of this is leases but as you noted there are a lot more debt instruments on CHC's balance sheet.

In much the same way as the leasing companies are going to get a beating from CHC, the creditors will also get the haircut. If the court looks at things like affordability of the debt while CHC is in Ch 11 (and I suspect that is a key component within the strategy - I'll admit I haven't read all the documents), then CHC's angle with ALL the creditors will be along the lines of 'I can afford to pay you back at 40c on the $1. This is a typical angle within Ch 11. It is highly likely that the outcome will be that the $1.2bn debt you quote will be substantially lower in the near future, maybe around $400m.

As for the shareholders, in theory the risk for shareholders vs debt holders is in the value of the overall business, not in the value of the debt. Therefore if the business fails then the shareholders (in this case CD&R, FR and a few others) take a beating as well as their equity is wiped out. This is the risk of being a shareholder vs a bond holder, bond holders get paid first. It is up to CHC and the court to decide of the old shareholders get a stake in the newly re-modeled company, there are examples of it happening and it not happening. The real issue for the shareholders will be what happens when and if CHC want to raise some cash from new equity investors (and I suspect CHC will). CHC will ask investors for more money in exchange for equity (not debt). The old shareholders will likely either be diluted so much as to be irrelevant, or wiped out all together. There will be a new board of directors too as shareholders vote for the board. I hope the CEO survives, he seems to be doing a great job.

History would suggest that the answers to your points will be:

Leasing companies will still do business with CHC. If they withdraw their ac out of spite for having some returned, they are just putting their cash into their rivals's pockets when CHC get an ac from someone else. The beauty of CHC doing the Ch 11 now (so many idle ac in the market) is that the market allows them to do it and be relatively insulated from the fall out.

Junk bonds will be refinanced (the haircut)
1.2bn debt will be refinanced (the haircut)
The revolver will be refinanced but there might be collateral against it (ie owned ac/ facilities which alter the number anyway).
CD&R debt will be refinanced (the haircut).

The buildings - well that depends. In the big scheme of the disaster of CHC's balance sheet, the leasing of facilities is small fry. There might be a case to renegotiate the rates but the reality is that is not likely to be material when set against 90 idle aircraft and the debt you mention.

Any which way, CHC's balance sheet will be almost unrecognizable after this is all over.

Basically it's all on the table.

IMHO the most likely course of action will be that CHC wipe out all the current shareholders and do a debt for equity swap with the main people they owe money to (ie the creditors become the owners, maybe with some debt too). In addition, over the next 12 months, CHC will do a cash capital raising and the people who supply that will become shareholders as well. The existing bond holders who do not take the equity swap offer (of all classes) will get a haircut in the region of 60%.

I think CHC will be out of Ch 11 by the middle of October (successful Ch 11 is often 6 months ish) and CHC will successfully emerge much leaner.

Hope that helps.

NWS
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