@ Andy_S,
Originally Posted by msbbarratt
I think that there's every chance of an A380neo and stretch at some point, which Airbus can trot out at almost any time they like.
You clearly missed the bit which said:
Airbus has been reluctant to make the multibillion-dollar investment for essentially one customer.
Also......
Originally Posted by msbbarratt
Airlines that have built up a large and loyal customer base won't be keen to risk losing that by squeezing them into a cramped 777 tube. A shiny new 777 would be expensive indeed if it results in 10% of the customer base choosing a different airline.
You do realise that Emirates operate more 777 than A380, right? 10 across seating as well.
I know all that, but ultimately one cannot ignore the fact that:
- Passengers like the A380, and quite a lot of regular passengers avoid buying tickets on anything else especially 10-across 777.
- Emirates and some other well placed operators have no trouble filling them. Emirates themselves have been quoted in various articles saying that a lot of their custom is repeat and regular business, exactly the type of business airlines like. The A380 also gives them the room to offer highly profitable exotic seats like the Residence, suites, etc.
- Slot congestion at major airports is only going to get worse, meaning there will always be a need to a huge aircraft
- Replacing A380 with, for example, a 10-across 777-? after many years of A380 operations would be a return to sardine packing, definitely a business gamble for the successfully busy A380 operators.
And I think that it'll come down to that. If the ME3 (and other operators) want to perpetuate their premium image beyond the lifetime of their A380s and still be able to carry a large numbers of passengers in a single flight, then it's hard to see what else they could buy.
It could descend into a game of cat-n-mouse. At the first hint of the A380 production line being closed up, Emirates or someone else will order a few to keep the line open. And if the operators and Airbus orgranise themselves then a NEO or stretch will be done.
An A380neo clearly is not going to happen in the near future, but the pressure for it will not be going away any time soon.
Of course RR can sort of do the neo all by themselves, simply by upgrading the -900 beyond all recognition. It wouldn't be the first time they've back-ported new tech to old engines (e.g. -524H-T), and they could always to a plug/pylon compatible new engine design.