It's impossible for someone here to tell you. Your AME will have to review your record and tell you whether the past problems will cause future problems with renewal.
Bring ALL your relevant records if you go to a new AME! If you go to the same AME, call him and ask if he will need anything extra from you before the exam. Do NOT try to avoid the issue on the MedXpress application - it will only cause bigger problems later.
Recent FAA reforms have increased the number of situations where AMEs can issue the certificate after an initial waiver is granted. You may be lucky...