In the end, the marked will rule. Regardless of what anyone considers fair, the company will only react when it cannot place the required amount of drivers in the seats. The facts speak for themselves; CX pilots are not leaving for greener pastures because, frankly, there are no greener pastures.
There are several options available to the company to solve the immediate crewing problems, all made possible by weak scope clauses and a lack of solidarity between the various Cathay associations. Noting the AOAs own history of failing to unite, it seems less than likely that the employees themselves will be able to block creative reorganisations of the group's aircraft, crew and contracts.
Without the industrial strength afforded to Western airline unions through a regulatory framework, AOA pilots are, at the end if the day, subject to marked forces alone. While the company once was willing to pay a premium for attracting a certain quality of aircrew, those days are over and policy now dictates that a licence and some form of rating is the only requirement. That may be very hard to accept for some, but nevertheless true.
Whatever changes now come about, I will wager that the resulting further fractioning of crewmember's interests and lack of any significant rise in attrition levels makes it a safe and necessary move by management.
Those who choose to spend their lives with this outfit have already chosen dollars over lifestyle, fresh air, cabins by the lake and western labour protections. And it's not as if Hong Kong is getting more democratic as we approach the end of the 50 year transition.
When - and only when - crews are leaving in droves for BA, United, Emirates, Korean and Ethiad will any significant changes come about. And then only enough to stem the flow to an acceptable level.
It's hard to obtain sympathy when you're King of the hill. And unless people start resigning in any meaningful numbers, it's hard to argue against that being the case.