Originally Posted by
birmingham
Folks,
It always makes me smile when people say we should wait for the final report. Why? it is perfectly reasonable to discuss what happened. What we should do is avoid wild speculation and recognise that the various parties are subject to constraints we are not. Please also remember that the people at AH, CHC, AAIB etc. are professionals and while they have slightly different agendas in my opinion and experience are certainly not dishonest.
I think the reason AH have started to push what they see as the probable cause is that the 225 programme won't survive another 9 month suspension. This is nothing to do with the cause of the accident (although they clearly believe that is associated with the failure of the transmission shaft suspension). It is to do with the fact that NS is in decline, the oil price is low, the helicopter business is surviving on military orders, the operators are in financial distress and machines are being returned to lessors at an unprecedented rate. Lessors may see this as an oppopportunity to restructure their civil heicopter portfolios while their fixed wing business is boyant.
Thus the Pumas may end up effectively withdrawn well before the AIBN issues its final report and whatever that concludes.
Yes I agree. That is the Big Picture
Well Said!