wheelsright
A few points
Unless explosives can be confirmed from debris analysis (and perhaps even if it is), it leaves the distinct possibility that there is a potential weak spot in the related wiring harnesses or protection thereof.
It's early yet.
If the FDR and CVR are recovered, they may not provide sufficient information to resolve precisely what that weakness is, or how the chain of events may have started.
At this point, I'd suggest betting for getting the CVR and FDR rather than against. It's early yet. The search effort is still underway.
Locating the wiring and equipment involved, and raising from 10k may be impossible. This will leave the investigators having to try to recreate the circumstances...
AF 447 was in more than 12,000 feet of water. Once the site was found (after what, 2 years?) a great deal of information was gleaned from what the were able to obtain and examine with a variety of technology. A lot depends upon how well the investigation is run, and how much assistance and advice from experts in recent crashes over water the Egyptians will accept. (Your point about the difficulties in being able to isolate wiring issues once the aircraft is in parts and has been underwater for a while is understood).
I recall the volumes of criticism BEA received over the AF 447 accident. Well, don't you wish they were running this one?