Reading through the posts of last night, I see everyone is still chewing on the same old gum. There is one item in particular which seems to be completely misunderstood, and that is one of the few FACTUAL information we know:
Originally Posted by HCAA press statement
At 03:29:40 am local time the flight signal was lost from radar, almost 7 NM south/southeast from KUMBI point (boundary point, between ATHINAI and CAIRO FIRs), within Cairo FIR. Immediate assistance of the Hellenic Air Force radars was requested for possible target tracking, with no avail. (full press statement here:
Hellenic Civil Aviation Authority - News)
The lost radar contact referred to is SECONDARY RADAR, ATC does not use primary radar any more. The timing almost perfectly matches the loss of data from FR24, etc. indicating that the loss of contact happened while the aircraft was still cruising at FL370. From the statement it is clear that Greek AF primary AD radar did not track the flight, so any subsequent statements made by the minister of defence were likely the result of analysis of stored recordings.
We have zero information on the time it took to FL100, and the taken course itself has not been verified, it is just based on a politician's press statement, and we all know what that's worth. As the last ACARS messages were received very close to this time, it is fair to assume that all communications systems lost power at this point.
As for the ACARS messages, keep in mind that they could:
A) indicate valid faults, the system functioning as designed
B) be generated in error, due to some components of the ECAM system being compromised
In absence of FDR/CVR data, it will take a very lengthy and complicated fault path analysis to establish whether the messages reflect scenario A) or B), until this is known it is meaningless to draw any conclusions based on assumption A).
From known/published FACTS, this is what we know till now:
- Flight progressed on course at FL370 till moment of loss of contact. Last voice communication happened 42 minutes earlier when all appeared normal.
- Flight at LKP was in cruise phase, TOD would have been another 10-15 minutes, approaching the Egyptian coastline.
- ACARS data indicate a series of faults commencing at 3-4 minutes prior to loss of contact. Some of the transmitted ECAM messages suggest smoke in FWD lavatory/avionics bay, however it is yet to be established whether these are valid warnings or have been generated in error.
- Simultaneous loss of ADS-B and ACARS data suggests loss of power to both systems.
- Three minutes prior to loss of contact, crew did not respond to Greek ATC calls, however the area is known to be a blind spot confirmed by several knowledgeable posters, so this by itself would not indicate any problems.
- SUPPOSEDLY some time after loss of contact aircraft entered into a steep descent with some lateral maneuvres (based on analysis of Greek primary AD radar returns), however this is based on Greek MoD press statement made very soon after the accident, may not be verified and needs to be treated with caution.
- Aircraft crashed into the Mediterranean with high energy very close to LKP. This suggests aircraft was still structurally intact at time of impact with the sea (compare wreckage of Metrojet to the very mangled and fragmented pieces recovered so far - the seat-back piece is particularly telling - with Metroject whore rows survived the free-fall practically intact)