Originally Posted by
takata
I haven't seen any timed data from the radar source anywhere. Only the manoeuvers were described, but it's way too vague at this point. No com reported is somewhat a clue about the situation of the crew by itself. One can imagine a fast pace of events taking place in a very short time.
I don't believe there is anything other than
1 - the last clean data item from FR24 is at 0:29:33
2 - Greek ATC say the lost primary radar contact at 00:30 (implied descending through 9 or 10 thousand feet).
There is no data other than the Greek defence Minister's statement that the aircraft made the manoeuvres attributed. The slick graphics are
AFAIK all made up by the media outlets. The time frame between everything OK and claimed loss of radar contact is too short for ATC radar to have reliably detected the claimed heading changes. This would not be the first time a defence official attributed more information to the radar returns than appropriate (this happened both with the Brazil mid air collision and MH17).
I feel that particular comment is being given massively excessive weight and will likely prove to be a red herring.
The most likely scenario is everything progessed normally up to 0:26z and then by 0:29:33 there was fully developed catastrophe that resulted in the failure of all/most systems and the subsequent loss of the aircraft. Determine the sequence of events in leading to the catastrophe will need a few more days items to clarify.
One item, that is in the hands of the investigators, is the time stamped radar data. This will indicate if there really were 'controlled' turns or just an uncontrolled aircraft or fragments of aircraft tumbling down.
The claimed timeline would indicate a slightly negative g descent coupled with a 4-6 g set of turns sustained for about 30-50 seconds (for a net positive 3.5-6 g load). I would believe no sane A320 pilot would choose to initiate that kind of maneuver. However, it would be totally consistent with free falling debris.
Of course if the Greeks really lost radar contact at 0:35, then there would be plenty of time for pilot controlled maneuvers. But we don't have the data and will need to wait for it to be published.