For the umpteenth time in the last five years lets define the meaning of a transport hub viz a Hub and Spoke Airline business model - they are NOT the same thing !
Heathrow is most certainly a Global/National and Regional transport Hub transfer point however there is just One Hub and Spoke airline base - That of IAG Group carrier BA and JV partners AA and JAL supported by a few other One Airlines friends and relatives.
Heathrow is declining as a transfer/connection point on the global stage - this is undoubted however fact is the airlines would rather see this decline continue to accelerate after all this strengthens the yield potential and bottom line doesn't it ?
London - Point to point fare yields will always out perform those from say Bologna via LHR to Austin for instance.
This whole debate is based on the wrong question imo and specifically the framework was about RUNWAY capacity not the bl**dy preference of Hub and Spoke.
It misses the point on where much/most of the aviation growth projected by esteemed analysts is expected to be in the next decades and is NOT over the EU golden triangle !
Most will be Chinese domestic and regionally. India has equal domestic potential if corruption and local politic interference is broken !
South America again needs an end to political favouritism to expand with most growth again rather local.
Almost all growth within Europe will continue to be with the disruptive forces of the flexible fare operators - Point to point based business models.
And a select number of regional airports WILL see an up take of longer haul particularly leisure based.
The ME3 have been an added disruptive force in the UK market however i believe already rather close to a point of consolidation from now on.
From a personal perspective i am rather sceptical of the numbers used to estimate aviation growth over the next quarter of a millennium - they just seem way too high in a straight line !
The projections have been wrong before .
Seriously is there really a Birmingham sized demand just waiting for a new strip of concrete and expenditure of a medium sized nation in the boroughs of Slough and Windsor, Spelthorne and Hounslow ?
As for the regions need Heathrow and trickle down - Call boloney - the regions need to access to the global stage can be via anywhere Amsterdam/Newark /Dubai already provide a far better experience for many and those that choose BA - well Newcastle Leeds and Manchester do have multiple daily flights to Heathrow already.
Based on whats been said it should be of little surprise that the airline that would like to see R3/T6 the most would be you guessed it a Flexible fares carrier somewhat orange operating point to point short haul at the expense of an other base !
Not those oft talked of X'ian or Trivandrum services !